Expectation and Probability Affect Intention

I get it – expectation improves outcome probability. What I don’t get is why so often I do NOT get what I expect!!!

I’m sitting down right now. I intend to get up and go into the kitchen. When I get up out of my chair, I expect to simply stand up and carry out my intention. Were I to trip or slip out of my chair onto the floor, I may feel surprised, maybe alarmed, or even terrified.

Expectation deals with outcome based on need – “I must stand up now!” No plan or strategy. Just a predicted outcome to fulfill a need.

The level of perceived need in my expectation is based on a high level of misunderstanding that sets up probability for an outcome I’ll perceive as failure!

Expectation and Failure

The greater the expectation of success, the more emotional energy realized in failure. Expectations set up probabilities for emotionally charged outcomes – a “payoff.”

Emotions, Expectation, and Probability

What I have little to no conscious sense of control over are the specifics of an expectation. For example, I may expect to win the lottery – and thus set up a probability by buying a ticket. The expectation of winning the lottery, which is a very specific outcome, sets up a probability for feeling emotions connected with that win…

My expectation sets up a balancing equation to  the ENERGY of the emotional load I expect to feel by achieving my expectation. For example, losing the lottery I expected to win might provide me with the same amount of emotional ENERGY as winning but in the opposite direction. Instead of jubilation, I might feel severe disappointment. Instead of happiness, I might experience depression or disillusionment.

Perhaps the relationship between expectation and probability reside in the realm of emotional energy. The more energy I put into an expectation, the more I’ll probably get from the outcome. In this regard, win or lose, I get a payoff. As science has shown and perhaps you’ve experienced yourself, emotional payoff can be addictive.

My mental expectations affect probabilities, applying an amplification factor to my emotional experience of outcome that satisfies my EMOTIONAL needs.

Expectation and Intention

Feel the difference between:

  • I expect to win (feel the need?)
  • I intend to win (feel the direction?)

The certainty of expectation in a world of uncertainty is a setup for emotional payoff. Intention affects probability through increased attention – direction.

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